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Press Release: November 2009: New data suggests obesity may be levelling off in children

03 November 2009

The National Heart Forum today published 'Obesity trends for children aged 2-11 years and 12-19 years' which suggests that obesity may be levelling off in children.

The National Heart Forum compared previous forecasts of obesity prevalence based on Health Survey for England (HSE) obesity data, to new updated forecasts based on data between 2000 and 2007. This showed a significantly healthier picture, suggesting that the rate of increase in obesity levels across the country may be in decline.

The prevalence of overweight and obesity amongst children in England has risen relentlessly since the mid 1970s. This data shows encouraging signs that this rising trend may be levelling out.

The team of experts led by Professor Klim McPherson of Oxford University and Chair of the National Heart Forum conducted the analysis preparing forecasts up to 2020 for children's overweight and obesity levels using the most recent HSE data and compared them to previous estimates, based on survey data till 2004.

The new 2020 forecasts suggest that the predicted proportion of overweight boys aged 2-11years falls from 22% to 17% and of obese boys falls from 20% to 13%.The predicted proportion of overweight girls aged 2-11years falls sharply from 34% to 17% and of obese girls falls from 14% to 10%.

For young people aged 12-19 years the forecasts are also more positive. The predicted proportion of overweight boys in 2020 decreases from 25% to 18% and of obese boys decreases from 19% to 6%. The predicted proportion of overweight girls decreases from 35% to 29% and of obese girls decreases from 30% to 9%.

Professor Klim McPherson, said:

"These trends present a more positive picture that obesity may be levelling off in children. However, prevalence, and current trends, of excess weight are still unacceptably high and these figures should not be taken as an argument for complacency. The Government needs to keep up the work they are doing to tackle obesity.

"We will need to continue to monitor these trends for the next few years to ensure that this promising data is a sign of permanent change in obesity trends."

The Minister for Public Health, Gillian Merron said:

"Obesity is one of the biggest health challenges we face, there are currently 1.5 million children and 25 million adults that are overweight or obese, leaving them at increased risk of type 2 diabetes, cancer, heart and liver disease.

"The encouraging news that child obesity may be levelling off is thanks to the hard work of families, schools and the NHS across England, supported by Government initiatives such as 5 A Day and Healthy Schools  which have overseen improvements to school food and school sport.

"But obesity levels are still too high and we need to keep the momentum going.

"We'll only turn the tide on obesity for good if everyone - government, families and industry - play their part."

Press Contacts

Media contact Klim McPherson  (M) 07711 335993 or Tim Marsh (M) 07713 514942

Please note both of the above will be unavailable after 11am November 3rd.

After this time, please direct further enquiries to Jane Landon on (T) 020 7383 7638 or (M) 07929 785196 

Notes to editors

  1. Obesity Recent Trends in Children  Aged 2-11 and 12-19 by McPherson K, Brown M, Marsh T and Byatt T and its companion paper Obesity Trends for Children Analysis from the Health Survey for England 1993-2007 McPherson K, Brown M, Marsh T and Byatt T are available to download from http://www.heartforum.org.uk/

  2. Foresight Tackling Obesity:-Future Choices Modelling Future Trends in Obesity and their impact on Health McPherson K, Marsh T, Brown M (2007)  Government Office for Science is available to download at http://www.foresight.gov.uk/ 
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